I have never done an end of year wrap up post before. You know, summarized my predictions for the year to come, or even analyzed the year that is ending. That being said, I can tell you personally, that I am glad to be seeing the end of 2005 and am welcoming with wide open arms all of the possibilities and goodness to come in 2006. This year has been such a bitter sweet one for me, so good, yet so tough, and just a fine mix of both to make me happy that 2006 is just about here, I am ready for the fresh and new.
Below, I have outlined some of my predictions for the landscape in 2006. When I first started to write these out I didn’t think I would have too much to say, but I guess I did
Predictions for 2006:
- Video blogs (Vlogs) will take off as quickly as podcasts, and there will be a rapid emergence of vlog talent and shows, a handful of which will rise quickly and become extremely popular. Vlogs will become one of the most popular talent scouting mediums and we will see a few folks get their own deals and go mainstream.
- Comcast, specifically will begin to pick up some of the more popular & promising independent vlog talent to fuel its, right now lacking in content, On Demand system.
- Podcasting will continue to emerge at a rapid rate. Citizen media podcasting will continue to get more and more interesting, and production value will continue to improve. Podcasting will grow by leaps and bounds on the corporate side. Companies will experiment with all types of concepts around podcasting. By the end of 2006, universities and colleges who do not have a fully implemented podcasting system in place for their course lectures, or plans for one, will be seen as “behind the curve.”
- Sirius & XM will continue to fight the content fight, and we will see some key podcasters getting deals for their own shows. Satellite radio will grow leaps and bounds in 2006 and people will adopt “the converted” mentality, wondering why they waited so long.
- Tivo will either do one of two things; build out their own directory of on demand content i.e. the Rocketboom deal, first in an effort to increase its value and provide premium value add services, or be bought by one of the major’s, Google, Microsoft or Yahoo or possibly Comcast, which will do the same. I am out on a leg on that one but I guess thats why we call them predictions.
- Email marketing will continue growing as an effective marketing medium for businesses. The landscape will continue with its deliverability challenges, but some very good progress will take place on a solution. Spam won’t go anywhere and will continue to be a nuisance. The ESP market will continue to consolidate.
- RSS will continue to emerge as a “preferred” channel of communication for consumers and business. The mass population will begin to undergo the shift in using the web differently as their content preferences are “pushed” to them. This will be a 2-3 year cycle and really gain heavy momentum once Windows Vista is released and the “standardization” of RSS is fully adopted.
- There will be the release of a new web based public RSS aggregation tool that will be different from anything we have seen yet to date. It will be feature rich, and will assist with mainstream RSS adoption, and have a strong focus on niche community building. The application will also support podcasts and vlogs.
- Podshow will continue to grow its network and directory of shows. Event sponsorship and strategic placement of their brand will be very visible for all to see. Their value increases as their listenership and circulation numbers begin to be released on a quarterly / semi-annual basis attracting a slew of advertisers and sponsors. Their media kit will be impressive. They will also do some kind of distribution deal with a major player.
- Odeo will begin to come up with some very cool out of the box models for promoting podcasts. They will associate themselves with specific events, companies, and figure heads that somehow brand them as a preferred choice for users. They will also release a toolset that allow podcasters to monetize their podcasts, matching advertisers up with the best shows that fit their brand. Odeo will also have, or be working on support for vlog’s, this will create a one stop shop for the creation, promotion and monetization of their own audio and video shows. Odeo will also come out with some kind of commercial version / solution in the future. A little fuzzy on that one but I see it in the cards. Nothing short of execution.
- Feedburner will continue to grow and add the killer features that anyone burning a feed wants. As a result of kicking ass and executing on the market demands, they will house and distribute the majority of RSS feeds as people continue to fall in love with their services and have no “true” alternative to their feature rich platform. Someone will want to buy Feedburner by the end of 2006, they may hold out to gain more critical mass, or the number will just be such an insane value per user / feed that it will be too good to pass up. If they are sold things will get very interesting pending on who the acquirer is. People take their feed(s) very seriously, and this will grow into 2006.
- There will be the launch of a new music service that will allow people to make the stars. It will be unlike anything we have seen before, fueled by social networks and recommendations. Last FM is the closest I have seen to date, however unless its just me, they seem to be slow in market penetration and or making any real waves. I know they have a TON of users, but c’mon guys lets make some noise! Oh, and MySpace will continue to slow down and will NOT be the musicians choice in the future. It will be considered so last year.
- As previously predicted, the trend will continue and more and more software will become available on a self service subscription model over the web, making it easier for consumer useage, and making life much sweeter for corporate IT departments.
OK thats all for now, I will probably have at it again when I have more thoughts, but I have to go hit the “Honey Do” list now. New Years Eve is going to be a festivus maximus in the kitchen tonight! Feel free to tear it up in the comments, and Happy New Year everyone!